Predictive Credit: Measuring What Scientific Explanations Add to Experimental Forecasts
Research agents explain planned experiments. We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context. Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment,…
AI Summary & Key Takeaways
- Research agents explain planned experiments
- We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context
- Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment,…
Predictive Credit: Measuring What Scientific Explanations Add to Experimental Forecasts
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